:Product: 19990503RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 May 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 123 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 03 MAY 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  02/2100Z
TO 03/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8525 (N18E24)
GENERATED AN M4/2N EVENT AT 0602Z. A HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION WAS
SEEN BY SOHO-LASCO A SHORT TIME LATER. THE ACTIVITY INCLUDED TYPE II
AND IV SWEEPS, AND A RADIO BURST OF 220 SFU AT 2695 MHZ. THE REGION
HAS BEEN LARGELY QUIET SINCE THIS ACTIVITY, RETAINING ITS BRIGHT
PLAGE AND OMINOUS APPEARANCE. REGION 8524 (N20W69) BECAME ACTIVE
LATE IN THE DAY, PRODUCING THREE C-CLASS FLARES IN THE LATTER HALF
OF THE PERIOD. THE REMAINDER OF THE DISK AND LIMBS WERE QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGIONS 8524 AND 8525 ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE CONTINUED
C-CLASS ACTIVITY. AN ISOLATED M-LEVEL EVENT MAY OCCUR IN THE NEXT 72
HOURS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 02/2100Z TO 03/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS WERE AT HIGH LEVELS THE MAJORITY OF THE
DAY.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ACTIVITY FROM
TODAY'S HALO CME IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 04 MAY-06 MAY
CLASS M    40/40/40
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           03 MAY 127
PREDICTED   04 MAY-06 MAY  125/125/120
90 DAY MEAN        03 MAY 129
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 MAY  008/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 MAY  010/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 MAY-06 MAY  010/010-010/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 04 MAY-06 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/30
MINOR STORM           05/05/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/40
MINOR STORM           10/10/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01