:Product: 19990504RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 May 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 124 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 04 MAY 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  03/2100Z
TO 04/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. THIS WAS DUE TO A SINGLE
M1 EVENT THAT OCCURRED AT 03/2311UT. THIS WAS AN OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED EVENT. THE MOST ACTIVE REGION WAS 8527 (N26E12),
PRODUCING A C2/1F EVENT AT 04/1858. THIS WAS SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL
ACTIVITY FROM A SINGLE SPOT HSX CLASSIFICATION. THE REST OF THE
REGIONS SHOWED LITTLE CHANGE AND ONLY MINOR ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY.
A NEW REGION WAS NUMBERED: 8531 (N18E65), A 2 SPOT CSO BETA GROUP.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 72
HOURS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 03/2100Z TO 04/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET WITH A SINGLE UNSETTLED PERIOD
OCCURRING AT 04/06-09UT. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE AT HIGH LEVELS ALL DAY.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT
TWO DAYS. THIS INCREASE SHOULD BE CAUSED BY THE CORONAL MASS
EJECTION THAT OCCURRED ON 03/0606UT AS SEEN BY SOHO-LASCO. THE EPAM
PLOT (ELECTRON AND PROTON PARTICLES) FROM THE ACE SATELLITE HAS
SHOWN A STRONG AND STEADY INCREASE SINCE APPROXIMATELY 03/2200UT.
THIS IS USUALLY AN INDICATOR OF AN IMMINENT SHOCK ARRIVAL AT EARTH.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 05 MAY-07 MAY
CLASS M    40/40/40
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           04 MAY 139
PREDICTED   05 MAY-07 MAY  125/125/125
90 DAY MEAN        04 MAY 129
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 MAY  008/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 MAY  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 MAY-07 MAY  020/020-020/020-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 05 MAY-07 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/40/30
MINOR STORM           25/25/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                60/60/40
MINOR STORM           20/20/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01