:Product: 19990505RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 May 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 125 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 05 MAY 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  04/2100Z
TO 05/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW, PRODUCING ONLY FOUR C1 X-RAY
EVENTS DURING THE PERIOD. ALL FOUR EVENTS WERE OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED. THE LARGEST REGION ON THE DISK, 8525 (N18W02),
REMAINED STABLE AND SHOWED VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY. THE REST OF THE
REGIONS WERE ALSO STABLE AND MOSTLY QUIET. THREE NEW REGIONS WERE
NUMBERED: 8532 (S40W14), 8533 (N05E74), AND 8534 (S18E74).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 04/2100Z TO 05/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. A SUDDEN IMPULSE OF 8
NT WAS OBSERVED AT 05/1542UT BY THE BOULDER USGS MAGNETOMETER. NO
SIGNIFICANT GEOMAGNETIC EFFECT WAS NOTED AS BZ REMAINED
PREDOMINATELY NORTHWARD AFTER THE SUDDEN IMPULSE. THE GREATER THAN 2
MEV ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE AT HIGH LEVELS ALL DAY.
THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REACHED
THRESHOLD LEVELS AT 05/1820UT AND REMAINED AT HIGH LEVELS FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 06 MAY-08 MAY
CLASS M    20/20/20
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           05 MAY 141
PREDICTED   06 MAY-08 MAY  140/140/135
90 DAY MEAN        05 MAY 129
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 MAY  003/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 MAY  006/006
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 MAY-08 MAY  015/015-015/015-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 06 MAY-08 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/25
MINOR STORM           20/20/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/40/30
MINOR STORM           25/25/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01