:Product: 19990506RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 May 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 126 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 06 MAY 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  05/2100Z
TO 06/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONLY TWO C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS
OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD. THE STRONGEST BEING AN OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED C3 AT 06/0135UT. REGION 8534 (S18E59) PRODUCED A C2/SF
AT 06/1048UT. OVERALL THE REGIONS WERE MOSTLY STABLE AND PRODUCED
VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY. TWO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED: 8535 (N20E56)
AND 8536 (S24E51).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO BE LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 05/2100Z TO 06/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH A SINGLE
ACTIVE PERIOD OCCURRING AT 06/0900-1200UT. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS
FOR THE PERIOD. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS
ORBIT STARTED THE PERIOD AT HIGH LEVELS UNTIL 06/0550UT, WHEN THEY
DROPPED BELOW THE EVENT LEVEL THRESHOLD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 07 MAY-09 MAY
CLASS M    20/20/20
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           06 MAY 147
PREDICTED   07 MAY-09 MAY  145/145/140
90 DAY MEAN        06 MAY 130
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 MAY  006/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 MAY  015/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 MAY-09 MAY  015/015-010/012-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 07 MAY-09 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/25/25
MINOR STORM           20/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/30/30
MINOR STORM           25/20/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01