:Product: 19990507RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 May 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 127 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 07 MAY 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  06/2100Z
TO 07/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE DUE TO AN UNCORRELATED M3
EVENT AT 07/0441UT. IT IS MOST LIKELY THAT THIS EVENT ORIGINATED
FROM BEYOND THE EAST LIMB. OVERALL ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED
DRAMATICALLY IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. CURRENTLY THERE ARE 11 SPOTTED
REGIONS ON THE DISK, 6 OF WHICH HAVE RECENTLY ROTATED ONTO THE
EASTERN LIMB. 7 DIFFERENT REGIONS PRODUCED OPTICAL SUB-FLARES DURING
THE PERIOD. THE TWO MOST ACTIVE REGIONS WERE: REGION 8525 (N16W31)
WHICH PRODUCED A MODERATE DURATION C7/1F EVENT IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
6 DEGREE DSF AT 07/1410UT AND REGION 8539 (N13E45) WHICH PRODUCED A
C3/SF AT 07/0703UT. 4 NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED: 8537 (N19W60), 8538
(N10W33), 8539 (N13E45), AND 8540 (S28E70).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 06/2100Z TO 07/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE AT NORMAL TO MODERATE LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 08 MAY-10 MAY
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           07 MAY 163
PREDICTED   08 MAY-10 MAY  165/165/170
90 DAY MEAN        07 MAY 130
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 MAY  009/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 MAY  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 MAY-10 MAY  010/010-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 08 MAY-10 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/20
MINOR STORM           15/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/25/25
MINOR STORM           20/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01