:Product: 19990508RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 May 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 128 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 08 MAY 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  07/2100Z
TO 08/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE.  TWO XRAY FLARES, AN M1
AND AN M4, OCCURRED FROM REGIONS 8541 (N22E67) AND 8526 (N19W80),
RESPECTIVELY.  A TYPE II AND TYPE IV SWEEP WERE RECORDED DURING THE
M4 FLARE.  THE TYPE II SWEEP WAS WEAK WITH A SHOCK SPEED OF
APPROXIMATELY 800 KM/S AND THE TYPE IV SWEEP LASTED FOR 49 MINUTES.
ONE NEW REGION, 8541 (N22E67), WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 07/2100Z TO 08/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 09 MAY-11 MAY
CLASS M    50/50/50
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           08 MAY 172
PREDICTED   09 MAY-11 MAY  180/190/180
90 DAY MEAN        08 MAY 131
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 MAY  009/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 MAY  006/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 MAY-11 MAY  005/010-008/005-008/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 09 MAY-11 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/25
MINOR STORM           15/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01