:Product: 19990509RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 May 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 129 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 09 MAY 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  08/2100Z
TO 09/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH WITH AN M7 XRAY FLARE WHICH
OCCURRED AT 09/1807UT.  THE PROBABLE REGION AND LOCATION ARE 8537
AND N19W88.  ADDITIONALLY, AN M1/1F OCCURRED AT 09/0047UT FROM
REGION 8541 (N22E53) AND ANOTHER M1/SF AT 09/1227UT FROM REGION 8525
(N17W60).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE.  ALTHOUGH REGION 8537 IS ROTATING OFF THE DISK, OTHER
ACTIVE REGIONS ARE EXPECTED KEEP ACTIVITY AT MODERATE LEVELS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 08/2100Z TO 09/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET.  THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGH THE SECOND DAY OF THE
PERIOD.  ON THE LAST DAY OF THE PERIOD, EFFECTS FROM A DISAPPEARING
FILAMENT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACTIVITY SLIGHTLY.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 10 MAY-12 MAY
CLASS M    75/75/60
CLASS X    20/20/15
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           09 MAY 178
PREDICTED   10 MAY-12 MAY  180/180/180
90 DAY MEAN        09 MAY 132
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 MAY  004/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 MAY  004/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 MAY-12 MAY  008/005-008/008-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 10 MAY-12 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/30
MINOR STORM           10/10/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/30/35
MINOR STORM           15/15/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05