:Product: 19990510RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 May 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 130 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 10 MAY 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  09/2100Z
TO 10/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MODERATE.  A SINGLE M2/2N FLARE
OCCURRED FROM REGION 8539 (N13E03) AT 10/0531UT.  A FULL HALO CME
WAS OBSERVED BY SOHO/LASCO AFTER THIS FLARE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 09/2100Z TO 10/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET.  THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBITS WERE AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, BECOMING
UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM ON THE THIRD.  A CORONAL HOLE IS ROTATING
INTO A GEOEFFECTIVE POSITION, A SMALL DISAPPEARING FILAMENT WAS
NOTED AT 07/1400UT, A MAJOR FLARE (M7) OCCURRED AT 09/1807UT, AND A
HALO CME WAS OBSERVED DURING AN M2 FLARE AT 10/0531UT FROM REGION
8539.  ALL OF THESE COMPONENTS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO THIS INCREASE IN
ACTIVITY.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 11 MAY-13 MAY
CLASS M    75/60/60
CLASS X    20/15/15
PROTON     05/05/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           10 MAY 170
PREDICTED   11 MAY-13 MAY  175/175/170
90 DAY MEAN        10 MAY 132
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 MAY  004/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 MAY  007/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 MAY-13 MAY  015/012-015/015-020/020
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 11 MAY-13 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/30/35
MINOR STORM           10/15/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/35/40
MINOR STORM           15/20/25
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/05