:Product: 19990511RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 May 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 131 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 11 MAY 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  10/2100Z
TO 11/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. SEVERAL OPTICAL SUBFLARES
HAVE PRODUCED SMALL C-LEVEL X-RAY FLARES FROM REGIONS 8535 (N21E08)
AND 8541 (N22E25).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.  THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBITS WERE AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE DURING THE FIRST AND THIRD DAY IN
THE PERIOD DUE TO CORONAL HOLE INFLUENCES.  DAY 2 IS EXPECTED TO BE
ACTIVE WITH A CHANCE OF MINOR STORMING DUE TO A CME OBSERVED EARLY
ON 10 MAY.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 12 MAY-14 MAY
CLASS M    60/60/60
CLASS X    15/15/15
PROTON     05/10/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           11 MAY 159
PREDICTED   12 MAY-14 MAY  157/157/157
90 DAY MEAN        11 MAY 132
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 MAY  003/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 MAY  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 MAY-14 MAY  015/015-020/025-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 12 MAY-14 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/35/35
MINOR STORM           15/20/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/40/35
MINOR STORM           20/25/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05