:Product: 19990512RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 May 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 132 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 12 MAY 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  11/2100Z
TO 12/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. TWO C-CLASS X-RAY FLARES
WERE OBSERVED WITH THE LARGEST A C4/SF AT 11/2208Z. THE FLARE WAS
OPTICALLY CORRELATED WITH A NEW REGION NUMBERED TODAY AS REGION 8542
(S19E58).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 11/2100Z TO 12/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINATELY QUIET THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AFTER 12/1800Z. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBITS WERE AT MODERATE  TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS THE FIRST DAY OF
THE FORECAST DUE TO THE CME OBSERVED EARLY ON 10 MAY. QUIET TO
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 13 MAY-15 MAY
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           12 MAY 153
PREDICTED   13 MAY-15 MAY  150/145/145
90 DAY MEAN        12 MAY 132
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 MAY  001/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 MAY  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 MAY-15 MAY  020/020-010/012-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 13 MAY-15 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/20/15
MINOR STORM           20/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/25/20
MINOR STORM           25/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05