:Product: 19990513RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 May 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 133 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 13 MAY 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  12/2100Z
TO 13/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN VERY LOW. REGION 8543 (N06E45)
WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 12/2100Z TO 13/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS.  SOLAR
WIND DATA FROM THE ACE SPACECRAFT HAS NOT SHOWN A CONCLUSIVE CME
SIGNATURE, LIKELY CAUSE OF THE DISTURBANCE IS THE INFLUENCE OF A
RECURRENT CORONAL HOLE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 14 MAY-16 MAY
CLASS M    20/20/20
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           13 MAY 147
PREDICTED   14 MAY-16 MAY  140/135/130
90 DAY MEAN        13 MAY 132
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 MAY  008/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 MAY  025/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 MAY-16 MAY  015/012-010/010-005/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 14 MAY-16 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/20/15
MINOR STORM           20/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/25/25
MINOR STORM           25/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/05/05