:Product: 19990514RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 May 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 134 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 14 MAY 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  13/2100Z
TO 14/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW.  THERE WERE TWO SMALL OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED C-CLASS X-RAY FLARES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. LASCO/EIT
IMAGES INDICATED A CME BEHIND THE NE LIMB AT APPROX 14/0400Z, AND
THE DISAPPEARANCE OF A 20 DEGREE LONG FILAMENT (S35E60) AT 14/0600Z.
REGIONS 8544 (S20E60) AND 8545 (N37E72) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.  THE EFFECTS OF A RECURRENT
CORONAL HOLE ARE EXPECTED BY THE LAST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 15 MAY-17 MAY
CLASS M    20/20/20
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           14 MAY 144
PREDICTED   15 MAY-17 MAY  140/140/135
90 DAY MEAN        14 MAY 131
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 MAY  017/024
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 MAY  ???/???
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 MAY-17 MAY  005/008-005/008-010/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 15 MAY-17 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/25
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/35
MINOR STORM           15/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05