:Product: 19990515RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 May 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 135 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 15 MAY 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  14/2100Z
TO 15/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW, ONLY SMALL FLARES HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED.  TWO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED, REGION 8546 (S33W45) AND
8547 (N22W15).  REGION 8547 IS EMERGING JUST EAST OF REGION 8541
(N21W26).  GROWTH HAS BEEN REPORTED IN REGION 8544 (S21E48)
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 14/2100Z TO 15/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN GENERALLY QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE UNSETTLED WITH ACTIVE PERIODS LIKELY ON 17
MAY AS A RESULT OF A FAVORABLY POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 16 MAY-18 MAY
CLASS M    20/20/20
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           15 MAY 144
PREDICTED   16 MAY-18 MAY  140/135/135
90 DAY MEAN        15 MAY 130
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 MAY  007/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 MAY  007/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 MAY-18 MAY  005/008-010/015-008/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 16 MAY-18 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/25/15
MINOR STORM           15/20/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/25/25
MINOR STORM           15/20/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/10/05