:Product: 19990516RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 May 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 136 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 16 MAY 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  15/2100Z
TO 16/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MODERATE.  THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
ACTIVITY WAS A PAIR OF M1 X-RAY EVENTS AT 16/1346Z AND 16/1720Z.
BOTH WERE IMPULSIVE EVENTS ASSOCIATED WITH OPTICAL ACTIVITY IN
REGION 8534 (S17W76).  THERE HAVE BEEN ONLY MINOR CHANGES IN THE
SIZE AND COMPLEXITY OF THE CURRENT ACTIVE REGIONS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 15/2100Z TO 16/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 17 MAY-19 MAY
CLASS M    20/20/20
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           16 MAY 152
PREDICTED   17 MAY-19 MAY  145/145/140
90 DAY MEAN        16 MAY 130
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 MAY  006/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 MAY  005/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 MAY-19 MAY  012/018-008/012-008/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 17 MAY-19 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/05/05
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01