:Product: 19990517RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 May 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 137 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 17 MAY 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  16/2100Z
TO 17/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE.  THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
EVENTS WERE AN UNCORRELATED M2.3 X-RAY FLARE AT 17/0449Z AND AN M1
X-RAY FLARE AT 16/2225Z CORRELATED TO OPTICAL ACTIVITY IN REGION
8541 (N22W37).  REGION 8548 (S21E48) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 16/2100Z TO 17/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 18 MAY-20 MAY
CLASS M    30/25/20
CLASS X    05/01/01
PROTON     05/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           17 MAY 145
PREDICTED   18 MAY-20 MAY  145/140/140
90 DAY MEAN        17 MAY 129
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 MAY  003/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 MAY  003/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 MAY-20 MAY  005/010-005/010-008/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 18 MAY-20 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01