:Product: 19990520RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 May 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 140 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 20 MAY 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  19/2100Z
TO 20/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW.  THE PERIOD WAS CHARACTERIZED
BY A NUMBER OF WEAK, OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C-CLASS X-RAY FLARES.
REGION 8549 (N25W59) EMERGED AND PRODUCED SEVERAL OPTICAL
SUB-FLARES.  REGION 8550 (S14E74) WAS ALSO NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW,
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED M-CLASS X-RAY FLARES.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 19/2100Z TO 20/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 21 MAY-23 MAY
CLASS M    20/20/20
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           20 MAY 143
PREDICTED   21 MAY-23 MAY  140/140/140
90 DAY MEAN        20 MAY 128
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 MAY  008/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 MAY  008/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 MAY-23 MAY  005/008-005/008-008/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 21 MAY-23 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/25
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/25
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05