:Product: 19990521RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 May 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 141 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 21 MAY 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  20/2100Z
TO 21/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW.  REGION 8549 (N26W79) WAS VERY
ACTIVE, PRODUCING NUMEROUS OPTICAL SUB-FLARES.  THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT
X-RAY EVENT WAS A LONG DURATION C2.4 FLARE.  THE FLARE BEGAN AT
APPROXIMATELY 21/1715Z, REACHING A MAXIMUM AT 21/1949Z, AND WAS
STILL IN PROGRESS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.  REGION 8551 (N32E62)
WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
WITH A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED M-CLASS X-RAY FLARES. REGION
8549 REMAINS ACTIVE WHILE ROTATING OFF THE DISK, AND REGION 8545
(N36W10) SHOWS SIGNS OF INCREASING MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 20/2100Z TO 21/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.  THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 22 MAY-24 MAY
CLASS M    25/25/25
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           21 MAY 140
PREDICTED   22 MAY-24 MAY  140/140/145
90 DAY MEAN        21 MAY 128
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 20 MAY  004/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 MAY  005/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 MAY-24 MAY  005/008-005/010-005/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 22 MAY-24 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/25/25
MINOR STORM           05/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01