:Product: 19990522RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 May 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 142 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 22 MAY 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  21/2100Z
TO 22/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. YESTERDAY'S LONG DURATION
C-CLASS EVENT THAT BEGAN AT 21/1715Z FINALLLY ENDED AT 21/2141Z. AN
ADDITIONAL C-CLASS EVENT OCCURRED AT 22/0652Z WITH A PEAK OF C1.4
AND NO OPTICAL CORRELATION. A 22 DEGREE FILAMENT NEAR S26E29
DISAPPEARED SOMETIME BETWEEN 21/1850Z AND 22/0634Z. OBSERVATIONS
FROM SOHO SUGGEST THAT THE FILAMENT FADED RATHER THAN ERUPTED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE GREATER
THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX ATTAINED HIGH LEVELS TODAY.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 23 MAY-25 MAY
CLASS M    25/25/20
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           22 MAY 140
PREDICTED   23 MAY-25 MAY  145/145/145
90 DAY MEAN        22 MAY 128
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 MAY  005/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 MAY  005/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 MAY-25 MAY  005/008-005/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 23 MAY-25 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                05/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05