:Product: 19990524RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 May 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 144 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 24 MAY 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  23/2100Z
TO 24/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE PERIOD WAS CHARACTERIZED BY
A NUMBER OF SMALL C-CLASS X-RAY FLARES.  THE LARGEST WAS A C3.3 FROM
NEWLY ASSIGNED REGION 8552 (N20E68).  REPEATING THE TREND OF
YESTERDAY, REGIONS 8550 (S14E17), 8551 (N32E25) AND 8552 WERE THE
MOST ACTIVE.  REGION 8550 CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A COMPLICATED
INVERSION LINE WITH A POSSIBLE MAGNETIC DELTA CONFIGURATION.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW WITH A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS X-RAY EVENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 23/2100Z TO 24/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ONE 3 HOUR
PERIOD OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 25 MAY-27 MAY
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           24 MAY 137
PREDICTED   25 MAY-27 MAY  140/145/145
90 DAY MEAN        24 MAY 128
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 MAY  008/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 MAY  008/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 MAY-27 MAY  008/012-008/012-008/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 25 MAY-27 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01