:Product: 19990526RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 May 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 146 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 26 MAY 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  25/2100Z
TO 26/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE.  THERE WERE A LARGE NUMBER
OF WEAK C-CLASS X-RAY FLARES, TWO OF WHICH WERE LONG DURATION
EVENTS.  THE FIRST LDE WAS AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C1 AT 25/2137Z,
THE SECOND A C2/SF FROM REGION 8550 (S14W12) AT 26/0522Z.  IN
ADDITION THERE WAS A TYPE II RADIO SWEEP (SPEED 650 KM/S) CORRELATED
TO A C2/SF FROM REGION 8554 (N26E26) AT 26/0230Z.  FINALLY, THE
STRONGEST FLARE WAS AN M1/2N FLARE FROM REGION 8552 (N11E41) AT
26/1932Z.  ONE REGION, 8555 (N16E75), WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
WITH A CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 25/2100Z TO 26/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH A CHANCE FOR ACTIVE
CONDITIONS LATE TOMORROW.  THE INFLUENCE OF A RECURRENT CORONAL HOLE
IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 27 MAY-29 MAY
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           26 MAY 153
PREDICTED   27 MAY-29 MAY  150/155/160
90 DAY MEAN        26 MAY 129
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 25 MAY  014/019
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 MAY  008/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 MAY-29 MAY  010/010-010/012-010/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 27 MAY-29 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/20/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/25
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01