:Product: 19990528RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 May 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 148 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 28 MAY 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  27/2100Z
TO 28/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. REGIONS 8558 (N14E68) AND
8559 (N21E20) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.  REGION 8559 IS NOW A
LARGE ALPHA-TYPE SPOT GROUP WHICH TRAILS REGION 8552 (N21E11).
REGIONS 8558 AND 8557 (S26E60) PRODUCED C2 XRAY FLARES AT 28/0553UT
AND 28/1212UT, RESPECTIVELY.  REGION 8552 CONTINUES TO GROW IN
COMPLEXITY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 27/2100Z TO 28/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF MINOR STORM
AT HIGH LATITUDES FOR THE FIRST DAY OF THE PERIOD DUE TO RECURRENT
CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS AND POSSIBLE CME INFLUENCE. THE SECOND AND
THIRD DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED
ACTIVE PERIODS AT HIGH LATITUDES.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 29 MAY-31 MAY
CLASS M    50/50/50
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           28 MAY 152
PREDICTED   29 MAY-31 MAY  158/163/170
90 DAY MEAN        28 MAY   130
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 MAY  007/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 MAY  010/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 MAY-31 MAY  020/025-012/020-012/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 29 MAY-31 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                50/35/20
MINOR STORM           20/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                60/40/30
MINOR STORM           30/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/05/01