:Product: 19990529RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 May 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 149 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 29 MAY 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  28/2100Z
TO 29/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. AN M1 X-RAY FLARE WITH
MINOR RADIO BURSTS AND A TYPE II SWEEP OCCURRED AT 29/0304Z. A CME
OBSERVED AT THE SAME TIME SUGGEST THE EVENT ORIGINATED ON THE SE
LIMB. REGION 8552 (N18W06) CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT SOME MAGNETIC
COMPLEXITY BUT HAS YET TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY. SPOTS IN
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF REGION 8557 (S28E48) APPEAR TO BE A SEPARATE
BIPOLE, THUS WERE NUMBERED AS REGION 8560 (S23E50). NEW REGION 8561
(N22E18) WAS ALSO NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. C-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE FROM SEVERAL REGIONS AND AN
ISOLATED M-CLASS IS POSSIBLE FROM REGION 8522 OR THE REGION
8557/8560 COMPLEX IN THE SE QUADRANT,
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 28/2100Z TO 29/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET WITH ISOLATED UNSETTLED
PERIODS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE TREND WILL BE FOR MORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AS A SOUTHERN CORONAL HOLE MOVES INTO A
GEOEFFECTIVELY FAVORABLE POSITION. INDICATIONS NOW ARE THAT THE
IMPRESSIVE HALO/CORONAL MASS EJECTION OBSERVED ON THE 27TH LIKELY
ORIGINATED FROM BEHIND THE LIMB - NO GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED FROM THIS EVENT.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 30 MAY-01 JUN
CLASS M    40/40/40
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           29 MAY 149
PREDICTED   30 MAY-01 JUN  155/155/160
90 DAY MEAN        29 MAY 130
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 MAY  007/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 MAY  007/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 MAY-01 JUN  012/020-010/012-008/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 30 MAY-01 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/25
MINOR STORM           15/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01