:Product: 19990530RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 May 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 150 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 30 MAY 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  29/2100Z
TO 30/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE PERIOD WAS HIGHLIGHTED BY
SEVERAL SUBFLARES IN REGION 8558 (N16E43) AND A PAIR OF C1 X-RAY
LONG DURATION EVENTS (LDE). REGION 8558 EXHIBITED STEADY GROWTH AND
NOW CONSISTS OF APPROXIMATELY 30 SPOTS MEASURING 300 MILLIONTHS OF
WHITE LIGHT AREA. FREQUENT BRIGHTNESS FLUCTUATIONS AND SURGES WERE
ALSO OBSERVED IN THIS REGION, BUT ONLY MINOR MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY WAS
NOTED. THE FIRST OF TWO C1 LDE X-RAY EVENTS OCCURRED AT 30/0328Z,
LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A CME OFF THE NE LIMB. THE SECOND C1 LDE
OCCURRED AT 30/1155Z AND ALSO APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A CME,
THIS TIME FROM THE W LIMB.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. CONTINUED C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY FROM REGION 8558
AND C-CLASS FLARES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM 8560 (S24E35), 8552
(N19W18), AND 8559 (N20E03) WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR AN M-CLASS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 29/2100Z TO 30/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS NOT
EXPECTED FROM THE LONG DURATION C1 X-RAY EVENTS AND ASSOCIATED CME'S
DUE TO THE PRESUMED DIRECTION OF THE EJECTA.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 31 MAY-02 JUN
CLASS M    40/40/40
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           30 MAY 157
PREDICTED   31 MAY-02 JUN  160/160/160
90 DAY MEAN        30 MAY 131
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 MAY  003/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 MAY  007/006
PREDICTED AFR/AP 31 MAY-02 JUN  010/010-008/010-008/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 31 MAY-02 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           01/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/25
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01