:Product: 19990602RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Jun 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 153 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 02 JUN 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  01/2100Z
TO 02/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. C-CLASS ACTIVITY CONTINUED FROM
A NUMBER OF REGIONS. THE LARGEST X-RAY FLARE OF THE PAST DAY WAS A
C9/1F AT 02/0513UT IN REGION 8562 (S16W05). THIS REGION ALSO
PRODUCED A NUMBER OF SMALL SUBFLARES. A LARGE CME WAS OBSERVED
YESTERDAY IN LASCO IMAGES AT ABOUT 01/1930UT. SUPPORTING DATA
SUGGEST THAT THIS EVENT WAS FROM THE BACKSIDE OF THE SUN. NEW
REGIONS 8565 (S07E42) AND 8566 (N23E74) WERE NUMBERED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. M-CLASS
FLARES ARE POSSIBLE IN REGION 8562.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 01/2100Z TO 02/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. A PROTON EVENT AT
GREATER THAN 10 MEV CROSSED THE 10 PFU EVENT THRESHOLD AT 02/0245UT.
SO FAR THE MAXIMUM FLUX WAS 48 PFU AT 02/1010UT. THIS EVENT REMAINS
IN PROGRESS. A POLAR CAP ABSORPTION EVENT, ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PARTICLES, OCCURRED FROM 02/0857UT TO 02/1850UT. MAXIMUM ABSORPTION
WAS 2.2 DB. THIS PARTICLE EVENT IS BELIEVED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE BACKSIDE CME OBSERVED AT 01/1930UT.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. NO EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE
BACKSIDE CME AT 01/1930UT. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON EVENT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETURN TO BACKGROUND LEVELS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 03 JUN-05 JUN
CLASS M    40/40/40
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       YELLOW
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           02 JUN 173
PREDICTED   03 JUN-05 JUN  175/175/170
90 DAY MEAN        02 JUN 132
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 JUN  006/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 JUN  008/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 JUN-05 JUN  010/008-010/008-005/007
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 03 JUN-05 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01