:Product: 19990603RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Jun 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 154 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 03 JUN 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  02/2100Z
TO 03/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8562 (S15W18)
PRODUCED AN M1/SF FLARE AT 03/0644UT. THIS REGION ALSO PRODUCED A
NUMBER OF C-CLASS SUBFLARES. GROWTH IN THIS REGION APPEARS TO BE
STABILIZING. IT IS NOW A D-TYPE GROUP WITH MODERATE MAGNETIC
COMPLEXITY. NEW REGION 8567 (S14W04) IS EMERGING ON THE DISK.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. C-CLASS FLARES ARE EXPECTED AND ADDITIONAL M-CLASS
FLARES ARE POSSIBLE. REGION 8562 IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY FLARE
PRODUCER.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 02/2100Z TO 03/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS ACTIVE TO QUIET. A SMALL SHOCK WAS OBSERVED
AT L1 AT ABOUT 02/2035UT. ACTIVE CONDITIONS FOLLOWED DURING THE
02/21-24UT AND 03/00-03UT PERIODS. ACTIVITY LEVELS HAVE BEEN QUIET
SINCE THAT TIME. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON EVENT HAS ENDED:
START 02/0245UT, MAXIMUM OF 48 PFU AT 02/1010UT, AND END 03/1410UT.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 04 JUN-06 JUN
CLASS M    50/50/50
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           03 JUN 174
PREDICTED   04 JUN-06 JUN  175/170/170
90 DAY MEAN        03 JUN 132
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 JUN  009/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 JUN  010/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 JUN-06 JUN  005/008-005/007-005/007
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 04 JUN-06 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           01/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01