:Product: 19990604RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Jun 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 155 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 04 JUN 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  03/2100Z
TO 04/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8552 (N19W86)
PRODUCED AN M3/2B FLARE AT 04/0703UT. THIS FLARE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
AN INTENSITY 3 TYPE IV SWEEP AND A PARTIAL HALO CME. NUMEROUS
C-CLASS FLARES ALSO OCCURRED DURING THE PAST DAY FROM A NUMBER OF
REGIONS. NEW REGIONS NUMBERED INCLUDE 8568 (N12W55), 8569 (N18E73),
AND 8570 (S14E74).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. C-CLASS FLARES ARE EXPECTED AND ADDITIONAL M-CLASS
FLARES ARE POSSIBLE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 03/2100Z TO 04/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. A GREATER THAN 10 MEV
PROTON EVENT BEGAN AT 04/0925UT AND REMAINS IN PROGRESS. SO FAR THE
MAXIMUM FLUX OF THIS EVENT WAS 64 PFU AT 04/1055UT. THE EVENT SOURCE
IS PRESUMED TO BE THE M3/2B AND CME AT 04/0703UT. A PCA EVENT WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PARTICLES, BEGINNING AT 04/1040UT AND REACHING A
MAXIMUM ABSORPTION OF 2.5 DB AT 04/1850UT.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED BECOMING UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE IN
RESPONSE TO THE CME EVENT DESCRIBED ABOVE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 05 JUN-07 JUN
CLASS M    50/50/50
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       IN PROGRESS
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           04 JUN 171
PREDICTED   05 JUN-07 JUN  170/165/160
90 DAY MEAN        04 JUN 133
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 JUN  009/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 JUN  010/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 JUN-07 JUN  018/017-015/012-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 05 JUN-07 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/15/10
MINOR STORM           10/05/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/20/15
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01