:Product: 19990605RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Jun 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 156 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 05 JUN 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  04/2100Z
TO 05/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. OCCASIONAL C-CLASS FLARES
OCCURRED AS THE DISK EXPERIENCED VERY SUBSTANTIAL WHITE LIGHT AND
H-ALPHA GROWTH. FOUR NEW REGIONS WERE ASSIGNED; 8571 (S19E60), 8572
(N26W58), 8573 (N18W45), AND 8574 (N30E40). THERE ARE CURRENTLY
FIFTEEN SPOTTED REGIONS VISIBLE, AND THE X-RAY BACKGROUND IS NEAR
THE CLASS C LEVEL. TODAY'S IS ONE OF THE RICHEST AND MOST
INTERESTING DISKS OF THE CURRENT CYCLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGIONS 8558 (N16W35) AND 8562 (S15W45) OFFER THE MOST
PROMISE FOR M-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 04/2100Z TO 05/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV
PROTON EVENT CONTINUES TO WANE WITH A TENTATIVE END TIME AT
05/1515Z. HOWEVER, THE FLUX IS HOVERING NEAR THE 10 PFU MARK, SO
FURTHER TIME MUST PASS TO CONFIRM THAT END. THE POLAR CAP ABSORPTION
EVENT ENDED AT 05/0420Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
EPISODES OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 06 JUN-08 JUN
CLASS M    50/50/50
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           05 JUN 164
PREDICTED   06 JUN-08 JUN  160/160/155
90 DAY MEAN        05 JUN 133
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 JUN  008/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 JUN  005/006
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 JUN-08 JUN  015/012-010/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 06 JUN-08 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01