:Product: 19990606RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Jun 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 157 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 06 JUN 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  05/2100Z
TO 06/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. INTERMITTENT SMALL C-CLASS
FLARES OCCURRED. REGION 8574 (N29E28) PRODUCED THE MAJORITY OF THE
FLARES, AND EXHIBITED THE BRIGHTEST PLAGE OF THE FOURTEEN SPOT
GROUPS NOW VISIBLE. REGION 8562 (S15W57) IS THE MOST COMPLEX
MAGNETICALLY, BUT HAS GENERATED LITTLE ACTIVITY. TWO NEW REGIONS,
8575 (N13E32) AND 8576 (S29E52), WERE ASSIGNED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT FROM EITHER REGION
8574  OR REGION 8562.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 05/2100Z TO 06/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON FLUX
AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT STAYED BELOW 10 PFU ALL PERIOD, SO THE EVENT
THAT BEGAN 04/0925Z, AND REACHED A MAX OF 64 PFU AT 04/1055Z, DID
INDEED END AT 05/1515Z. ACE DETECTED A SMALL DISCONTINUITY IN THE
SOLAR WIND AT L1 TODAY AT 0359Z, PERHAPS RELATED TO THE PASSAGE OF
THE CME THAT LEFT THE SUN AROUND 0700Z ON 04 JUNE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 07 JUN-09 JUN
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           06 JUN 168
PREDICTED   07 JUN-09 JUN  170/170/165
90 DAY MEAN        06 JUN 134
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 JUN  003/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 JUN  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 JUN-09 JUN  005/007-005/007-005/007
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 07 JUN-09 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01