:Product: 19990608RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Jun 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 159 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 08 JUN 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  07/2100Z
TO 08/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. AS HAS BEEN THE PATTERN OF THE
PAST FEW DAYS, JUST OCCASIONAL SMALL C-CLASS EVENTS OCCURRED. REGION
8574 (N28E01) WAS THE MOST ACTIVE CENTER, AND REMAINS BRIGHT IN
H-ALPHA. TWO NEW REGIONS WERE ASSIGNED; 8577 (N19W37) AND 8578
(N19E04).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 07/2100Z TO 08/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD VARIED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE. SOLAR WIND DATA
SHOW PROLONGED PERIODS OF SOUTHWARD IMF, PERHAPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A RECURRENT STRUCTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HELIOSPHERIC
CURRENT SHEET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH A CHANCE OF
ACTIVE CONDITIONS DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIMES. QUIET CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL JUNE 10-11.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 09 JUN-11 JUN
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           08 JUN 157
PREDICTED   09 JUN-11 JUN  155/150/145
90 DAY MEAN        08 JUN 134
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 JUN  004/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 JUN  015/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 JUN-11 JUN  010/010-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 09 JUN-11 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01