:Product: 19990611RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Jun 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 162 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 11 JUN 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  10/2100Z
TO 11/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. AN ACTIVE REGION ON THE NORTH
EAST LIMB (N38E90) IS STARTING TO ROTATE ONTO THE DISK AND COULD BE
A POTENTIAL SOURCE OF INCREASED ACTIVITY. AT 11/1107UT THIS REGION
PRODUCED AN ERUPTIVE PROMINENCE ON THE LIMB THAT COINCIDED WITH A
LONG DURATION C8 X-RAY EVENT, A TYPE II SWEEP, AND A TYPE IV SWEEP.
OPTICAL OBSERVATORIES REPORTED ACTIVE LOOPS IN THE AREA IMMEDIATELY
AFTER THE PROMINENCE ERUPTED. AN IMPRESSIVE CORONAL MASS EJECTION
FROM THIS EVENT WAS VISIBLE IN DATA FROM THE SOHO/LASCO SATELLITE.
ON THE DISK, THE MOST ACTIVE REGIONS WERE 8569 (N19W20) WHICH
PRODUCED A C4/1F EVENT AT 11/1818UT AND REGION 8574 (N29W37). BOTH
REGIONS HAVE BETA-GAMMA MAGNETIC CLASSIFICATIONS AND HAVE PRODUCED
OPTICAL SUBFLARES. TWO NEW REGIONS WERE ASSIGNED: 8581 (S38W15) AND
8582 (N26E31). REGION 8582 HAS PRODUCED TWO OPTICAL SUBFLARES DURING
THE PERIOD.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO BE LOW. THE ACTIVE REGION ON THE NORTH EAST LIMB (N38E90) THAT IS
STARTING TO ROTATE ONTO THE DISK COULD BE A POTENTIAL SOURCE OF
INCREASED ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ACTIVE CONDITIONS MAY BE EXPECTED ON JUNE 14TH AS
TWO SOUTHERN CORONAL HOLES MOVE INTO POSSIBLE GEOEFFECTIVELY
FAVORABLE POSITIONS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 12 JUN-14 JUN
CLASS M    40/40/40
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           11 JUN 165
PREDICTED   12 JUN-14 JUN  160/160/155
90 DAY MEAN        11 JUN 135
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 JUN  003/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 JUN  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 JUN-14 JUN  010/012-010/010-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 12 JUN-14 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/25
MINOR STORM           05/05/03
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/40
MINOR STORM           05/05/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01