:Product: 19990612RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Jun 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 163 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 12 JUN 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  11/2100Z
TO 12/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. NEWLY ASSIGNED REGION 8583
(S13E56) PRODUCED AN M1/1N FLARE AT 1336Z. THIS EVENT INCLUDED A
WEAK TYPE II SWEEP, AND SMALL RADIO BURSTS AT VARIOUS DISCRETE
FREQUENCIES. A PROMINENCE POSITIONED NEAR S23E90 ERUPTED SOON AFTER
THE X-RAY EVENT. THERE ARE TWELVE SPOTTED REGIONS VISIBLE, AND
BRIGHT PLAGE IS APPARENT IN REGIONS 8583, 8569 (N20W32), AND 8574
(N30W50). NEWLY NUMBERED REGION 8585 (N38E77) IS PERCHED OMINOUSLY
NEAR EAST LIMB. FIRST LOOKS SHOW IT TO BE LARGE AND INTERESTING.
REGION 8584 (N25W22) WAS BORN ON THE DISK.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. REGIONS 8583, 8585, 8569, AND 8574 ALL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO GENERATE M-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 11/2100Z TO 12/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 13 JUN-15 JUN
CLASS M    60/60/60
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           12 JUN 168
PREDICTED   13 JUN-15 JUN  170/175/175
90 DAY MEAN        12 JUN 135
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 JUN  003/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 JUN  005/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 JUN-15 JUN  010/010-010/012-005/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 13 JUN-15 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
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