:Product: 19990615RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Jun 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 166 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 15 JUN 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  14/2100Z
TO 15/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE FIFTEEN SPOTTED REGIONS ON
THE SOLAR DISK HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY STABLE DURING THE PERIOD. REGION
8583 (S12E17) PRODUCED A C1/SF EVENT AT 15/0031Z. THREE NEW REGIONS
WERE NUMBERED TODAY AS REGION 8586 (N34W18), REGION 8587 (N19E05),
AND REGION 8588 (S22E20).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
WITH AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR AN M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 14/2100Z TO 15/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. A WEAK SHOCK WAS REFLECTED
IN THE ACE SOLAR WIND DATA BEGINNING AROUND 15/0700Z. THIS
DISTURBANCE MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A CORONAL MASS EJECTION LATE ON
12 JUNE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 16 JUN-18 JUN
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           15 JUN 159
PREDICTED   16 JUN-18 JUN  155/150/150
90 DAY MEAN        15 JUN 136
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 JUN  002/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 JUN  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 JUN-18 JUN  005/010-005/012-005/007
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 16 JUN-18 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/25
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01