:Product: 19990616RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Jun 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 167 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 16 JUN 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  15/2100Z
TO 16/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8585 (N37E28) PRODUCED A
C3/1F AT 16/0509Z. THIS EVENT ALSO CORRESPONDED WITH A CME SEEN ON
THE LASCO IMAGES. AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATD TYPE II RADIO SWEEP
(SPEED 700 KM/S) OCCURRED AT 16/0328Z. A NEW REGION WAS NUMBERED
TODAY AS REGION 8589 (N28E04).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
WITH AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR AN M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 15/2100Z TO 16/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 17 JUN-19 JUN
CLASS M    20/20/20
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           16 JUN 153
PREDICTED   17 JUN-19 JUN  150/150/145
90 DAY MEAN        16 JUN 136
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 JUN  004/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 JUN  005/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 JUN-19 JUN  005/010-005/007-005/007
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 17 JUN-19 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/25
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01