:Product: 19990617RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Jun 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 168 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 17 JUN 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  16/2100Z
TO 17/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE. DEPARTED REGION 8569
(N18W98) PRODUCED AN M3 AT 17/1730Z. THE BIG BEAR OBSERVATORY
PROVIDED CONFIRMATION OF THE SOURCE REGION. A TYPE II WITH VELOCITY
NEAR 600 KM/S AND MINOR CENTIMETRIC BURSTS ACCOMPANIED THIS EVENT.
THE MAUNA LOA GROUND-BASED CORONAGRAPH OBSERVED A FAINT CORONAL MASS
EJECTION WITH THIS EVENT. REGION 8569 ALSO PRODUCED A C5 WITH AN
ERUPTIVE PROMINENCE AT 17/0036Z. SMALL REGIONS 8590 (S21W14) AND
8591 (N12E15) EMERGED ON THE DISK. REGION 8590 EMERGED SLIGHTLY
AHEAD OF EXISTING REGION 8588 (S22W05).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE GENERALLY LOW
FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF AN M-CLASS
EVENT DURING THAT PERIOD FROM CURRENT DISK REGIONS AND PREVIOUSLY
ACTIVE REGIONS DUE TO ROTATE OVER THE NORTHEAST LIMB. DEPARTED
REGION 8569 WILL BECOME LESS OF A THREAT AS IT ROTATES FARTHER
BEYOND THE WEST LIMB.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 16/2100Z TO 17/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE
QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 18 JUN-20 JUN
CLASS M    15/15/15
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           17 JUN 147
PREDICTED   18 JUN-20 JUN  150/152/154
90 DAY MEAN        17 JUN 136
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 JUN  005/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 JUN  005/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 JUN-20 JUN  007/008-010/012-007/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 18 JUN-20 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                05/10/05
MINOR STORM           01/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/20/10
MINOR STORM           05/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/01