:Product: 19990619RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Jun 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 170 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 19 JUN 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  18/2100Z
TO 19/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED LOW. NEW REGION 8592 (N24E70)
PRODUCED A LONG DURATION C5 AT 19/1355Z. A FAINT LOOP PROMINENCE
SYSTEM AND CORONAL RAIN WERE OBSERVED AT NE18-22 AFTER THE X-RAY
PEAK OF THE EVENT. THIS REGION APPEARED AS TWO MODERATE SIZE AND
WIDELY SEPARATED SPOTS. THIS AREA MAY IN ACTUALITY CONTAIN TWO
REGIONS. A FILAMENT LOCATED NEAR S45W51 ERUPTED BETWEEN
18/2352-19/0134Z.  OTHER DISK REGIONS WERE PREDOMINANTLY STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE GENERALLY LOW
FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
REGION 8592 AND OTHER REGIONS DUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE NORTHEAST
LIMB DURING THE PERIOD.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 18/2100Z TO 19/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD
REMAIN QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 20 JUN-22 JUN
CLASS M    25/25/25
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           19 JUN 139
PREDICTED   20 JUN-22 JUN  143/149/152
90 DAY MEAN        19 JUN 136
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 JUN  007/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 JUN  005/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 JUN-22 JUN  007/007-007/007-007/007
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 20 JUN-22 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01