:Product: 19990620RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Jun 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 171 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 20 JUN 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  19/2100Z
TO 20/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE. REGION 8592 (N22E64)
PRODUCED AN M2/SB AT 20/1535Z. A DISAPPEARING FILAMENT AND MINOR
CENTIMETRIC RADIO BURSTS ACCOMPANIED THIS EVENT. THIS REGION ALSO
PRODUCED A LONG DURATION C5/SF AT 20/2007Z WITH A LARGE BRIGHT SURGE
TO 1.14R. REGION 8592 APPEARS TO BE COMPRISED OF SEVERAL REGIONS BUT
FORESHORTENING PREVENTED ACCURATE MAGNETIC SEPARATION. THIS SHOULD
BE POSSIBLE WITH ONE MORE DAY OF ROTATION ONTO THE DISK. ANOTHER
REGION BEGAN TO ROTATE OVER THE NORTHEAST LIMB AT NE14. IT WAS
NUMBERED AS NEW REGION 8594 (N14E85) AND CONSISTED OF A LARGE H
CLASS SPOT. IT IS LIKELY TRAILER SPOTS WILL FOLLOW.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE AT LOW TO
MODERATE LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THE REGIONS ROTATING OVER
THE NORTHEAST LIMB POSSESS THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING OCCASIONAL
M-CLASS EVENTS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN X-CLASS EVENT FROM
THIS AREA.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 19/2100Z TO 20/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD
REMAIN QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 21 JUN-23 JUN
CLASS M    50/50/50
CLASS X    15/15/15
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           20 JUN 152
PREDICTED   21 JUN-23 JUN  152/157/163
90 DAY MEAN        20 JUN 137
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 JUN  004/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 JUN  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 JUN-23 JUN  005/005-005/005-007/007
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 21 JUN-23 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01