:Product: 19990621RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Jun 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 172 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 21 JUN 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  20/2100Z
TO 21/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE PERIOD WAS CHARACTERIZED BY
A NUMBER OF SMALL C-CLASS X-RAY FLARES, THE LARGEST BEING A C3/SF
FROM REGION 8585 (N38W31).  OTHER FLARING REGIONS INCLUDE 8594
(N14E67) AND 8583 (S11W64).  AS REGION 8592 (N22E45) CONTINUED TO
ROTATE ONTO THE DISK, OBSERVERS WERE BETTER ABLE TO DISTINGUISH
SEPARATE MAGNETIC GROUPS; THEY WERE NUMBERED AS REGIONS 8596
(N23E53), 8597 (N22E63), AND 8598 (N26E69).  ALSO NUMBERED TODAY
WERE REGIONS 8595 (N26E18) AND 8599 (S16E77).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT
LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 20/2100Z TO 21/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET FOR THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE PERIOD.  BY
DAY THREE A RECURRENT SOUTHERN CORONAL HOLE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
THE FIELD TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 22 JUN-24 JUN
CLASS M    40/40/40
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           21 JUN 146
PREDICTED   22 JUN-24 JUN  150/155/160
90 DAY MEAN        21 JUN 137
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 20 JUN  002/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 JUN  004/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 JUN-24 JUN  005/005-005/005-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 22 JUN-24 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/25
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01