:Product: 19990622RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Jun 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 173 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 22 JUN 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  21/2100Z
TO 22/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE.  AN M1/1N FLARE OCCURRED
AT 22/1829Z, ORIGINATING FROM REGION 8592 (N24E30).  ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FLARE WERE TYPE II (1400KM/S) AND IV RADIO SWEEPS AS WELL AS
MULTI-FREQUENCY RADIO BURSTS INCLUDING A 760 SFU TENFLARE.  THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WAS CHARACTERIZED BY NUMEROUS WEAK C-CLASS
EVENTS, THE MAJORITY OF WHICH ORIGINATED FROM REGION 8599 (S16E64).
NEW REGION 8600 (N19W22) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT
LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET LEVELS THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 23 JUN-25 JUN
CLASS M    60/60/60
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           22 JUN 162
PREDICTED   23 JUN-25 JUN  160/160/160
90 DAY MEAN        22 JUN 138
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 JUN  001/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 JUN  003/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 JUN-25 JUN  005/005-010/010-010/013
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 23 JUN-25 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/20/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/25/25
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01