:Product: 19990624RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Jun 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 175 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 24 JUN 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  23/2100Z
TO 24/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE.  THE LARGEST X-RAY FLARE
WAS AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED M1 EVENT AT 23/2316Z.  THE BACKGROUND
X-RAY FLUX REMAINED ABOVE C-LEVEL THRESHOLDS FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE
PERIOD WITH FREQUENT IMBEDDED C-CLASS FLARES. OVER TWENTY OPTICAL
FLARES WERE REPORTED, NEARLY ALL OF THEM FROM THE EXTENSIVE CLUSTER
OF GROUPS IN THE NE QUADRANT.  TWO DISAPPEARING FILAMENTS WERE SEEN.
THE FIRST OCCURRED AT APPROXIMATELY 24/1200Z; IT ORIGINATED NEAR
REGION 8595 (N23W21) AND WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A CLASSIC HYDER TYPE
FLARE AND NEARLY THREE HOURS OF ENHANCED X-RAY FLUX LEVELS.  THE
SECOND FILAMENT DISAPPEARED AT APPROXIMATELY 24/1830Z FROM AN AREA
NEAR REGION 8598 (N23E28).  IT WAS ACCOMPANIED BY OPTICAL FLARES
NEAR THE FILAMENT FOOTPOINTS AND APPROXIMATELY NINETY MINUTES OF
ENHANCED X-RAY FLUX.  THREE NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY; THEY
ARE REGIONS 8604 (N12W54), 8605 (S22W32), AND 8606 (N17E33).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE.  CONSIDERABLE ACTIVITY AND MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY
CURRENTLY SEEN IN THE NE GROUP CLUSTER INCREASES THE PROBABILITY OF
STRONG FLARE ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 23/2100Z TO 24/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH A CHANCE FOR MINOR STORMING
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  FLARE ASSOCIATED CMES, WHICH
OCCURRED ON 22/1829Z AND 23/0709Z, ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE OVER THE
FIRST TWO DAYS. TODAY'S EARLY DISAPPEARING FILAMENT SHOULD ARRIVE
LATE ON THE THIRD DAY.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 25 JUN-27 JUN
CLASS M    60/60/60
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     20/20/20
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           24 JUN 185
PREDICTED   25 JUN-27 JUN  180/185/190
90 DAY MEAN        24 JUN 139
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 JUN  005/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 JUN  007/006
PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 JUN-27 JUN  015/015-015/015-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 25 JUN-27 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/35/40
MINOR STORM           15/15/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/40/50
MINOR STORM           20/20/25
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/10