:Product: 19990625RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Jun 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 176 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 25 JUN 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  24/2100Z
TO 25/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE PERIOD
WAS A C3.4 AT 24/2305Z FROM REGION 8603 (S15E54). REGION 8603 WAS
OTHERWISE QUIET DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. REGION 8598 (N23E13) IS
THE DOMINANT REGION ON THE DISK AND PRODUCED THE MAJORITY OF TODAY'S
FREQUENT SUBFLARE ACTIVITY. THE SUNSPOT AREA IN THIS REGION HAS
CONTINUED TO INCREASE. THE REGION'S  MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION IS NOT
UNDULY COMPLEX AT THIS TIME. REGION 8604 (N12W68)  ALSO PRODUCED A
FEW SUBFLARES TODAY. YESTERDAY'S FILAMENT ERUPTION THAT OCCURRED AT
ABOUT 24/1200Z WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OBSERVATION OF A PARTIAL HALO
CME BY LASCO.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE, BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR HIGH ACTIVITY LEVELS.
REGION 8598 IS CONSIDERED TO BE THE MOST LIKELY SOURCE FOR ENERGETIC
FLARES, ESPECIALLY IF SOME MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY DEVELOPS. REGIONS
8603, 8604, AND 8606 MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE SOME C-CLASS SUBFLARES TO
SOLAR ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 24/2100Z TO 25/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
YESTERDAY'S PARTIAL HALO CME MAY ENHANCE ACTIVITY SOME, BEGINNING
LATE ON THE THRID DAY, ALTHOUGH OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE
TRANSIENT IS NOT MOVING DIRECTLY AT THE EARTH.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 26 JUN-28 JUN
CLASS M    55/55/55
CLASS X    15/15/15
PROTON     20/20/20
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           25 JUN 201
PREDICTED   26 JUN-28 JUN  205/210/210
90 DAY MEAN        25 JUN 140
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 24 JUN  004/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 JUN  005/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 JUN-28 JUN  005/010-005/012-010/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 26 JUN-28 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/25
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/25
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05