:Product: 19990629RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Jun 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 180 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 29 JUN 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  28/2100Z
TO 29/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY INCREASED TO MODERATE LEVELS. REGION
8602 (N18W07) SHOWED MINOR GROWTH AND PRODUCED AN IMPULSIVE M1/SF
FLARE AT 29/0510Z WITH AN ASSOCIATED TYPE II RADIO SWEEP AND MINOR
DISCRETE RADIO BURSTS. REGION 8611 (S25E33) CONTINUED A PERIOD OF
GRADUAL GROWTH THAT BEGAN WITH ITS EMERGENCE ON 27 JUNE. IT PRODUCED
AN IMPULSIVE M3/1N PARALLEL-RIBBON FLARE AT 29/0821Z ACCOMPANIED BY
MODERATE DISCRETE RADIO BURSTS. REGION 8603 (S15E04) PRODUCED THE
PERIOD'S LAST M-CLASS FLARE, AN M1/1N AT 29/1913Z WITH MODERATE
DISCRETE RADIO BURSTS. REGION 8598 (N23W38) SHOWED SLOW DECAY, BUT
RETAINED MODERATE MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. NO NEW REGIONS WERE ASSIGNED
TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. ISOLATED, LOW-LEVEL M-CLASS FLARES ARE LIKELY. THERE IS
ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MAJOR FLARE SOMETIME DURING THE PERIOD.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 28/2100Z TO 29/2100Z:
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY DECLINED TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS WITH A CHANCE FOR
ACTIVE LEVELS AT HIGH LATITUDES.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 30 JUN-02 JUL
CLASS M    60/60/60
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           29 JUN 191
PREDICTED   30 JUN-02 JUL  185/185/180
90 DAY MEAN        29 JUN 145
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 JUN  022/026
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 JUN  010/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 JUN-02 JUL  010/012-012/018-010/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 30 JUN-02 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/25
MINOR STORM           15/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01