:Product: 19990630RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Jun 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 181 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 30 JUN 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  29/2100Z
TO 30/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT MODERATE LEVELS. REGION 8603
(S14W11) SHOWED MINOR GROWTH AND A SLIGHT MIXING OF POLARITIES. IT
PRODUCED TWO IMPULSIVE M-CLASS FLARES DURING THE PERIOD. THE FIRST
WAS AN M1/1B AT 30/1130Z ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE DISCRETE RADIO
EMISSION AND A FAINT HALO-CME. THE SECOND WAS AN M2/2B
PARALLEL-RIBBON FLARE AT 30/1808Z ASSOCIATED WITH MINOR DISCRETE
RADIO EMISSION. REGION 8611 (S26E21) CONTINUED TO GROW GRADUALLY AND
PRODUCED AN M2/1N FLARE AT 30/0446Z WITH MINOR DISCRETE RADIO
EMISSION. THE FINAL M-CLASS FLARE OF THE PERIOD WAS AN M1/SF AT
30/2012Z FROM REGION 8598 (N24W49) WITH MODERATE DISCRETE RADIO
EMISSION. REGION 8598 DISPLAYED GRADUAL DECAY PRIOR TO THE FLARE.
REGION 8602 (N18W20) SHOWED A SLIGHT INCREASES IN PENUMBRAL COVERAGE
AND MAGNETIC FIELD INTENSITY. IT PRODUCED ISOLATED SUBFLARES, NONE
OF WHICH WERE ASSOCIATED WITH SIGNIFICANT X-RAY EMISSION. BRIGHT
SURGING WAS SEEN NEAR NE18 AROUND 30/1230Z AND MAY PORTEND THE
RETURN OF OLD REGION 8569 (N19, L=189), WHICH WAS OF MODERATE SIZE
AND MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY DURING ITS PREVIOUS ROTATION. NEW REGION
8613 (N18E67) WAS NUMBERED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT MODERATE LEVELS. ISOLATED, LOW-LEVEL M-CLASS FLARES ARE LIKELY.
THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MAJOR FLARE SOMETIME DURING THE
PERIOD.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 29/2100Z TO 30/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT MOSTLY QUIET LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE
FOR ACTIVE LEVELS DURING THE LAST TWO DAYS OF THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE
TO THE HALO-CME MENTIONED ABOVE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 01 JUL-03 JUL
CLASS M    60/60/60
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           30 JUN 210
PREDICTED   01 JUL-03 JUL  215/215/215
90 DAY MEAN        30 JUN 146
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 JUN  009/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 JUN  006/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 JUL-03 JUL  007/012-012/012-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 01 JUL-03 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/20/20
MINOR STORM           05/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/25/25
MINOR STORM           10/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01