:Product: 19990701RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Jul 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 182 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 01 JUL 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  30/2100Z
TO 01/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY DECLINED TO LOW LEVELS. SUBFLARE
ACTIVITY OCCURRED WITHIN A VARIETY OF REGIONS. HOWEVER, REGIONS 8603
(S14W25) AND 8611 (S25E07) WERE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE BULK OF THE
FLARING. REGION 8611 SHOWED A SMALL INCREASE IN AREA DUE TO
PENUMBRAL DEVELOPMENT AND CONTINUED TO SHOW SOME MIXING OF
POLARITIES. IT PRODUCED THE LARGEST FLARE OF THE PERIOD: A C8/SF AT
01/1748Z. REGION 8603 ALSO SHOWED SOME POLARITY MIXING, BUT NO
GROWTH WAS EVIDENT. IT PRODUCED ISOLATED C-CLASS SUBFLARES INCLUDING
A C5/SF AT 01/0147Z WITH A WEAK TYPE II RADIO SWEEP (EST. SHOCK
VELOCITY 600 KM/SEC). NEW REGIONS 8614 (N19E72) AND 8615 (S29E77)
WERE NUMBERED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR ISOLATED, LOW-LEVEL M-CLASS
FLARES.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 30/2100Z TO 01/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS DURING MOST OF THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER, THERE'S ALSO A CHANCE FOR ACTIVE PERIODS DURING THE
FIRST TWO DAYS IN RESPONSE TO A FAINT HALO CME SEEN ON 30 JUNE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 02 JUL-04 JUL
CLASS M    60/60/60
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           01 JUL 195
PREDICTED   02 JUL-04 JUL  195/190/180
90 DAY MEAN        01 JUL 147
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 JUN  003/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 JUL  009/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 JUL-04 JUL  012/012-010/010-007/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 02 JUL-04 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/10
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/15
MINOR STORM           15/15/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01