:Product: 19990702RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Jul 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 183 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 02 JUL 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  01/2100Z
TO 02/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY RETURNED TO MODERATE LEVELS. REGION 8598
(N23W80) CONTINUED TO SLOWLY DECAY AS IT NEARED THE WEST LIMB, BUT
WAS ABLE TO PRODUCE AN IMPULSIVE M1/1F FLARE AT 01/2143Z ASSOCIATED
WITH MINOR RADIO EMISSION. REGION 8603 (S14W37) DISPLAYED LITTLE
CHANGE AND REMAINED MODERATE IN SIZE AND MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. IT
PRODUCED AN M1/1N FLARE AT 01/2331Z AND A FEW SUBFLARES, NONE OF
WHICH WERE ASSOCIATED WITH SIGNIFICANT RADIO EMISSION. REGION 8611
(S25W06) RETAINED MODERATE MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY AND WAS THE LARGEST
(APPROX. AREA 400 MILLIONTHS) AND MOST ACTIVE OF THE VISIBLE
REGIONS. IT PRODUCED TWO M-CLASS FLARES: AN M2/1B AT 02/0138Z AND AN
M1/SF 02/1520Z, BOTH OF WHICH WERE ACCOMPANIED BY MINOR RADIO
EMISSION. NEW REGIONS 8616 (N30W73) AND 8617 (N14W28) WERE NUMBERED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MODERATE WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR ISOLATED, LOW-LEVEL M-CLASS FLARES.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 01/2100Z TO 02/2100Z:
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY RANGED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS.
THE ACE SPACECRAFT DETECTED AN INTERPLANETARY SHOCK PASSAGE AT L1 AT
02/0024Z FOLLOWED BY A SUDDEN IMPULSE AT EARTH AT 02/0101Z (48 NT,
AS MEASURED BY THE BOULDER USGS MAGNETOMETER). UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE
LEVELS OCCURRED DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH A BRIEF
INCREASE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS DURING THE 02/1500-1800Z INTERVAL.
THE SOURCE OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS LIKELY A HALO-CME OBSERVED ON 30
JUNE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS DURING THE FIRST DAY, THEN
DECREASE TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 03 JUL-05 JUL
CLASS M    60/60/60
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           02 JUL 187
PREDICTED   03 JUL-05 JUL  180/175/165
90 DAY MEAN        02 JUL 148
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 JUL  006/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 JUL  022/024
PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 JUL-05 JUL  012/015-008/012-008/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 03 JUL-05 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/20/20
MINOR STORM           15/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01