:Product: 19990703RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Jul 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 184 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 03 JUL 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  02/2100Z
TO 03/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. SEVERAL C-CLASS SUBFLARES
OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD FROM A VARIETY OF REGIONS. THE LARGEST
WAS FROM REGION 8611 (S25W20) WHICH PRODUCED A C7/SF  AT 03/2050Z.
THREE NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY AS REGION 8618 (S17E58), 8619
(S17E71) AND 8620 (N22E56).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE WITH ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES POSSIBLE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 02/2100Z TO 03/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 04 JUL-06 JUL
CLASS M    60/60/60
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           03 JUL 197
PREDICTED   04 JUL-06 JUL  185/180/180
90 DAY MEAN        03 JUL 149
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 JUL  023/026
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 JUL  012/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 JUL-06 JUL  008/012-008/012-008/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 04 JUL-06 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/25
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01