:Product: 19990704RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Jul 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 185 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 04 JUL 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  03/2100Z
TO 04/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. SEVERAL REGIONS PRODUCED
C-CLASS FLARES DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE LARGEST FROM REGION 8611
(S25W35) WHICH WAS A C6/1N AT 04/0828Z. A 10 DEGREE FILAMENT
DISAPPEARED BETWEEN 04/1453-1513Z AT N20W38 AND ANOTHER BETWEEN
04/1547-1614Z AT S14E46 WHICH WAS 11 DEGREES IN EXTENT. A NEW REGION
WAS NUMBERED TODAY AS REGION 8621 (N21E68).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE WITH ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES POSSIBLE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 03/2100Z TO 04/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 05 JUL-07 JUL
CLASS M    60/60/60
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           04 JUL 186
PREDICTED   05 JUL-07 JUL  180/175/175
90 DAY MEAN        04 JUL 149
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 JUL  010/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 JUL  005/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 JUL-07 JUL  005/012-005/016-005/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 05 JUL-07 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01