:Product: 19990705RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Jul 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 186 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 05 JUL 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  04/2100Z
TO 05/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8614 (N18E14)
PRODUCED A LONG DURATION C2/SF FLARE AT 05/0446Z. REGION 8611
(S26W45) HAD THE LARGEST FLARE OF THE PERIOD WITH A M1/1F AT
05/1848Z. REGIONS 8614 AND 8611 WERE RESPONSIBLE FOR SEVERAL C-CLASS
SUBFLARES. A C9 AT 04/2328Z OCCURRED WHICH WAS NOT CORRELATED
OPTICALLY.  A 13 DEGREE LONG FILAMENT DISAPPEARED BETWEEN
04/0917-2240Z AT N12E36.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE WITH ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES POSSIBLE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 04/2100Z TO 05/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 06 JUL-08 JUL
CLASS M    60/60/60
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           05 JUL 174
PREDICTED   06 JUL-08 JUL  175/175/170
90 DAY MEAN        05 JUL 150
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 JUL  000/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 JUL  005/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 JUL-08 JUL  005/014-005/008-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 06 JUL-08 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05