:Product: 19990706RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Jul 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 187 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 06 JUL 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  05/2100Z
TO 06/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONLY A FEW LOW C-CLASS FLARES
OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD. FOUR NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY AS
REGION 8622 (S31W20), REGION 8623 (N26W11), REGION 8624 (N25E26) AND
REGION 8625 (S20E76).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE WITH ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES POSSIBLE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 05/2100Z TO 06/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. A SUDDEN IMPULSE OF 5
NT WAS OBSERVED AT 06/1508Z. THE LIKELY SOURCE OF THIS DISTURBANCE
WAS A CORONAL MASS EJECTION/PARTIAL HALO OFF THE WEST LIMB LATE ON 3
JULY.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NIGHTTIME SECTORS FOR DAY ONE OF THE
FORECAST.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 07 JUL-09 JUL
CLASS M    60/60/60
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           06 JUL 168
PREDICTED   07 JUL-09 JUL  160/160/155
90 DAY MEAN        06 JUL 150
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 JUL  003/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 JUL  010/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 JUL-09 JUL  008/008-005/008-005/007
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 07 JUL-09 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/20/20
MINOR STORM           15/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05