:Product: 19990707RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Jul 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 188 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 07 JUL 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  06/2100Z
TO 07/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8611 (S26W73) PRODUCED
SEVERAL C-CLASS FLARES OVER THE PAST DAY. THE LARGEST WAS A C1/SF AT
07/0345UT. THIS REGION APPEARS TO RETAIN SOME MIXED POLARITIES AS IT
APPROACHES THE WEST LIMB. NEW REGION 8626 (S21W16) IS EMERGING ON
THE DISK AND HAS ALREADY PRODUCED A C-CLASS FLARE (C1/SF AT
07/1450UT).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. AN M-CLASS EVENT IS POSSIBLE FROM REGION 8611 BEFORE IT
ROTATES AROUND THE WEST LIMB.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 06/2100Z TO 07/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET SINCE THE 06/2100-2400UT PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 08 JUL-10 JUL
CLASS M    50/40/30
CLASS X    05/01/01
PROTON     05/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           07 JUL 158
PREDICTED   08 JUL-10 JUL  154/150/145
90 DAY MEAN        07 JUL 150
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 JUL  007/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 JUL  005/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 JUL-10 JUL  005/007-005/007-005/007
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 08 JUL-10 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01