:Product: 19990708RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Jul 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 189 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 08 JUL 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  07/2100Z
TO 08/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. C-CLASS ACTIVITY CONTINUES BUT
LESS FREQUENTLY THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE LARGEST FLARE WAS AN
OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C5 AT 08/0708UT. REGION 8611 (S26W84) APPEARS
TO BE LEAVING THE VISIBLE DISK QUIETLY. GROWTH IN REGION 8626
(S21W30) HAS SLOWED. NEW REGION 8627 (S12E70) WAS NUMBERED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE IS POSSIBLE IN DEPARTING REGION 8611 OR
REGION 8626.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 07/2100Z TO 08/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 09 JUL-11 JUL
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           08 JUL 149
PREDICTED   09 JUL-11 JUL  140/140/135
90 DAY MEAN        08 JUL 150
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 JUL  003/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 JUL  008/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 JUL-11 JUL  010/007-015/007-010/007
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 09 JUL-11 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/30/30
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/02/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/30
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05